If you’re a fan of the Colorado Avalanche, you are feeling pretty darn great these days.
We’re still basking in the glow of Cale Makar’s all-timer magisterial goalazo, a 10-2 streak in the midst of another COVID-19 surge, and the healthiest roster in what feels like the first time since the Wellington Webb administration.
Colorado online sportsbooks have plenty to offer in terms of Avalanche wagering options.
So why don’t we make some money while we’re at it?
An intriguing avenue to profit
The deep dive into odds and stats reveal an interesting path to profit thanks to overtime rules and regulation wins. It’s called the “three-way line” or “60 minute line.”
Normally in sportsbooks, it’s pretty easy to have a simple moneyline wager. One team is favored to win straight up, no matter if it’s an overtime wrister or a five-hole shootout winner.
The three-way line adds in the possibility of a tie after 60 minutes. Three options to choose from and that choice of a tie is rare at best.
Especially where the Avalanche is concerned. Nineteen of their 22 wins have come in regulation.
But what’s the benefit for my pocketbook?
Take the Jan. 6 game against the Winnipeg Jets as an example. The Avs were moneyline favorites of anywhere from -220 to -250 depending on your preferred book.
At best, that’s around $22 profit on a $50 bet. Not the best return.
At those same books, picking the Avs to win in regulation on the 60 minute line goes from -220 to -125 — that’s $40 profit instead of $22.
In some cases where the opponent is better competition, it could turn a likely Colorado win into a plus-money wager. Simply because you think the Avs will win without overtime.
Not only is it better odds, but the stats are on our side to make these wagers likely winners.
Numbers bear out Avalanche’s dominance
Through Jan. 13, the Avs were 22-8-3 overall. Yet only six of those 33 games went to overtime.
In the Western Conference, only the Seattle Kraken (4) and Edmonton Oilers (5) have had fewer games go past the regulation buzzer.
The Avs are the dominant team in the NHL this year and have been heavy favorites throughout the season. They’ve been straight-up favorites in 29 of their 33 games.
When the Avalanche win, they usually win big, with an average score of 5.36-2.32. That’s a big reason there are so few overtime games for the boys in burgundy.
So let’s follow the logic and stats (through Jan. 6):
- The Avs are likely to be favored in nearly every game. 88% so far this season.
- They play relatively few overtime games, just 18%.
- When they win, they are outscoring opponents by more than three goals per game.
So the three-way line bet may actually be the best option.
We get a wager that is the most likely outcome anyway and we get increased odds figuring that the game won’t even make it overtime.
In the end, betting the Colorado Avalanche three-way line has hit 19 times in 33 games through Jan 13. That’s a fantastic 57.6 percent strike rate when you’re getting improved odds on a very likely result.
I’ll take that bet.
