Underdog Falcons Could Take Control Of Conference Title Hopes Vs Boise St

Written By Ian St. Clair on October 15, 2021

Good college football in these parts has been a rare sight.

You might have more luck spotting a sasquatch roaming the Rocky Mountains.

At least in terms of “Colorado” college football, Air Force has been the best and most consistent of the bunch.

Now comes the biggest test of the 2021 season when the Falcons travel to Idaho to take on Boise State. It’s the PlayColorado College Football Game of the Week, and the winner will put themselves in a great position to compete for the Mountain West Conference Championship.

However, now that Mountain West play has started, Colorado State and Wyoming both play big games this weekend. The Rams should improve to 2-0 in conference play when they take on New Mexico; while the Pokes will look to get their first win in MW play when they host Fresno State.

But the Air Force (5-1 overall, 2-1 MW) and Broncos (3-3, 1-1) game could ultimately determine who comes out of the Mountain Division.

Air Force vs Boise State odds

 

The college football betting odds aren’t in Air Force’s favor. The Falcons are -point underdogs for Saturday’s game on the Smurf Turf.

This is the first time in the young season that the Falcons are underdogs.

Air Force enters the game on a three-game winning streak and a lot of confidence. Boise State is off to a shaky start, especially for its standards. However, the Broncos did just upset No. 19-ranked BYU and will carry that huge momentum into the weekend.

The other popular market is the total. The over/under sits at for Saturday night. On its face, that’s a big number, but both of these teams can score a lot of points. The Falcons are averaging 32.7 points per game, while Boise State is averaging 31.5.

For what it’s worth, when these two teams met last year at Falcons Stadium they combined for 79 points in a Broncos 49-30 win.

While Colorado does allow fans to bet on the in-state teams, unlike Illinois and Virginia, the state does not allow college football prop bets.

How Air Force wins

The Falcons need to win the turnover battle.

Yes, it’s cliche, but in a big game like this, if the Air Force defense can steal a possession or two, that’s huge. Everyone on the planet knows what the Falcons will do on offense. If the defense can force a few turnovers and get the ball back to its offense, Air Force has a great shot to leave Boise with a big win.

The other key on defense is to limit the big plays from the Broncos offense.

Based on the last handful of games, it appears that Boise State has the Falcons figured out. There’s that huge win from last season, but also the win from 2019. In fact, you have to go back to 2016 to find the last win in this series for Air Force.

For the Falcons, they have to do on Saturday what they’ve done so far this season and that’s run it all over Boise State.

If Air Force is able to keep this three-game winning streak alive and beat the Broncos for the first time since 2016, the path to a Mountain West title gets a little clearer.

Speaking of which, the current odds at DraftKings Colorado Sportsbook have the Falcons at +650 to win the Mountain West.

Photo by AP / Andres Leighton
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Ian St. Clair

Ian St. Clair is an award-winning sports journalist. He is a University of Northern Colorado graduate, Colorado native and has over a decade of experience covering college and professional athletics. Ian does a weekly sports betting segment each Wednesday on the VSIN Denver CityCast each Saturday on Klahr and Kompany on Denver radio station ESPN 1600 AM.

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