Do Oddsmakers Buy Into The Drew Lock Hype?

Posted on July 17, 2020 - Last Updated on January 15, 2021

The Drew Lock hype train is not slowing down.

If anything, it’s gaining speed.

In the words of Denver Broncos safety Justin Simmons on Friday, when he was on NFL Network’s Good Morning Football:

“I don’t believe you’re pumping him up … enough. There was that type of swag. A lot of it is just confidence, not even cockiness.”

It really is incredible what happens when a team gets a sniff of a franchise quarterback.

Since Peyton Manning retired, John Elway and the Broncos knew what they needed to find but kept winding up with fool’s gold.

Now that Denver has found Lock, the compass points to what it wants most of all — another Lombardi Trophy.

It will be fascinating to watch if the hype in Broncos Country translates to the CO sports betting market.

Since Colorado betting apps launched in May, if the 2020 season goes forward, this is the first opportunity for fans to bet on the NFL in Colorado. If fans think the Broncos have a legitimate shot this season, Super Bowl betting in Colorado could see some good play.

Lock’s odds for MVP

As to what that means for Lock’s futures odds for the NFL MVP, he’s still a long shot.

The oddsmakers feel the same about the hype for the Broncos — they are not buying it just yet. Though, it is nice to see Denver get some positive national attention again.

In fact, despite the additions on offense of Melvin Gordon in free agency and Jerry Jeudy and KJ Hamler via the NFL Draft, it seems the oddsmakers remain hesitant on Lock in general.

Until the second-year quarterback from the University of Missouri proves he can sustain more than five games, you can understand why.

As you would expect, Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes is the favorite for all the awards. It’s a bit of a surprise he’s not the favorite for the defensive awards, too.

Individual awards odds

Broncos Individual Awards OddsDraftKings FanDuel
NFL MVP — Top 5 followed by Broncos Top Five
Patrick Mahomes +400
Lamar Jackson +700
Russell Wilson +800
Dak Prescott +1400
Tom Brady +1600

Broncos
Drew Lock +6000
Von Miller +25000
Jerry Jeudy +50000
Top Five
Patrick Mahomes +380
Lamar Jackson +700
Russell Wilson +700
Dak Prescott +1200
Carson Wentz +1700
Deshaun Watson +1700
Drew Bress +1700
Tom Brady +1800

Broncos
Drew Lock +5500
Melvin Gordon +15000
Phillip Lindsay +20000
Courtland Sutton +30000
Von Miller +30000
NFL Offensive Player of the Year — Top 5 followed by Broncos Top Five
Patrick Mahomes +800
Derrick Henry +1000
Lamar Jackson +1000
Christian McCaffrey +1000
Michael Thomas +1000
George Kittle +1400
Russell Wilson +1600
Julio Jones +2000

Broncos
Melvin Gordon +7000
Drew Lock +10000
Courtland Sutton +10000
Top Five
Patrick Mahomes +650
Lamar Jackson +950
Christian McCaffrey +1300
Russell Wilson +1600
Michael Thomas +1800
Saquon Barkley +1800

Broncos
Drew Lock +8500
Melvin Gordon +8500
Courtland Sutton +10000
Phillip Lindsay +13000
NFL Defensive Player of the Year — Top 5 followed by Broncos Top Five
Aaron Donald +700
Nick Bosa +1200
Khalil Mack +1400
J.J. Watt +1400
TJ Watt +1400
Joey Bosa +2000
Myles Garrett +2000
Stephon Gilmore +2000
Derwin James +2000
Chandler Jones +2000
Von Miller +2000
Jadeveon Clowney +2500
Danielle Hunter +2500

Broncos
Bradley Chubb +4000
Top Five
Aaron Donald +750
Khalil Mack +1100
Nick Bosa +1300
TJ Watt +1500
Stephon Gilmore +1700

Broncos
Von Miller +1800
Bradley Chubb +4200
Justin Simmons +10000
NFL Comeback Player of the Year — Top 5 followed by Broncos Top Five
Ben Roethlisberger +300
Cam Newton +400
J.J. Watt +700
Matthew Stafford +800
Rob Gronkowski +800
Antonio Brown +1000

Broncos
Bradley Chubb +3300
Top Five
Ben Roethlisberger +260
Cam Newton +340
Rob Gronkowski +420
JJ Watt +700
Matthew Stafford +700
A.J. Green +900

Broncos
Bradley Chubb +3300
NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year — Top 5 followed by Broncos Top Five
Joe Burrow +200
Clyde Edwards-Helaire +700
Tua Tagovailoa +800
Jonathan Taylor +1000
Cam Akers +1600
Justin Herbert +1600
Jerry Jeudy +1600
D'Andrew Swift +1600

Broncos
K.J. Hamler +10000
Top Five
Joe Burrow +220
Clyde Edwards-Helaire +500
Tua Tagovailoa +750
Jonathan Taylor +1000
D'Andre Swift +1100

Broncos
Jerry Jeudy +1500
K.J. Hamler +5500
NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year — Top 5 followed by Broncos Top Five
Chase Young +200
Isaiah Simmons +500
Patrick Queen +900
Kenneth Murray +1100
Jeffrey Okudah +1600
Top Five
Chase Young +250
Isaiah Simmons +550
Patrick Queen +1200
A.J. Epenesa +2000
Derrick Brown +2100
Jeff Okudah +2100
Kenneth Murray +2100
NFL Coach of the Year — Top 5 followed by Broncos Top Five
Bruce Arians +1200
Bill Belichick +1200
Mike McCarthy +1300
Kyle Shanahan +1600
Kevin Stefanski +1800
Brian Flores +2000
John Harbaugh +2000
Sean McDermott +2000
Sean Payton +2000
Frank Reich +2000
Andy Reid +2000
Mike Vrabel +2000

Broncos
Vic Fangio +2500
Top Five
Bill Belichick +1200
Mike McCarthy +1200
Bruce Arians +1400
Frank Reich +1400
Kliff Kingsbury +1800
Sean McDermott +1800
Kevin Stefanski +2000
Kyle Shanahan +2000
Mike Vrabel +2000
Andy Reid +2200
John Harbaugh +2200
Sean Payton +2200

Broncos
Vic Fangio +2400

Individual season total odds

Perhaps the most interesting feature of the futures bets on DraftKings is the season total projections.

If you think Lock and the others will surpass what the sportsbook predicts, this is a great way for Broncos Country to cash in.

Broncos Player Totals DraftKings
Drew Lock 2020-21 Passing Yardage Over 3,450.5 yards -110
Under 3,450.5 yards -110
Drew Lock Touchdowns Over 21.5 touchdowns -110
Under 21.5 touchdowns -110
Courtland Sutton Receiving Yards Over 1,050.5 yards -110
Under 1,050.5 yards -110
Jerry Jeudy Receiving Yards Over 750.5 yards -110
Under 750.5 yards +110
Noah Fant Receiving Yards Over 625.5 yards -110
Under 625.5 yards +110
Melvin Gordon Rushing Yards Over 775.5 rushing yards -110
Under 775.5 rushing yards +110
Melvin Gordon Rushing
+ Receiving Yards
Over 1,050.5 rushing + receiving yards -110
Under 1,050.5 rushing + receiving yards +110

Broncos individual odds

The sports betting odds don’t improve much when it comes to other individual Broncos players and coaches.

The aforementioned Gordon still has better odds on DraftKings at +7,000 to win NFL Offensive Player of the Year than Lock at +10,000. Denver receiver Courtland Sutton has the same odds as Lock.

On FanDuel sportsbook app, Gordon and Lock have the same odds to win offensive player of the year (+8,500).

As for Jeudy, the rookie receiver has pretty good odds to win Offensive Rookie of the Year. Jeudy is at +1,500 on FanDuel and +1,600 on DraftKings.

Bet on the Broncos defense

While there is excitement for the offense, the Broncos defense is probably a safer bet until we see Lock and his allotment of toys on the field.

Edge rusher Von Miller sits at +1,800 on FanDuel to win NFL Defensive Player of the Year and +2,000 on DraftKings.

Bradley Chubb, the edge rusher coming off an ACL injury, is at +4,000 to win the award on DraftKings and +4,200 on FanDuel.

What should benefit both the Orange Rush of Miller and Chubb is the addition of  Jurrell Casey from the Tennessee Titans. The veteran defensive tackle should provide the interior rush the Broncos have lacked since Malik Jackson signed with the Jacksonville Jaguars.

That push from the middle should take some of the focus off of Miller and Chubb, especially when it comes to double teams.

Broncos long shots

If you want some real long shots to wager on, Miller is at +25,000 odds on DraftKings and +30,000 on FanDuel to win MVP.

If you want an even bigger long shot: Jeudy is at +50,000 on DraftKings for NFL MVP.

Coach of the Year

As for NFL Coach of the Year, Denver head coach Vic Fangio has +2,400 odds on FanDuel and +2,500 on DraftKings to win the award.

New England Patriots head coach Bill Belichick is the favorite on both sportsbooks, tied with new Tampa Bay Buccaneers head coach Bruce Arians on DraftKings at +1,200, and tied with new Dallas Cowboys head coach Mike McCarthy on FanDuel at +1,200.

No more fool’s gold?

The hype has definitely returned to Broncos Country.

Now that the Broncos appear to have found their franchise quarterback in Lock, perhaps they finally struck real gold.

If the hype pans out, Denver can return its focus to what longtime owner Pat Bowlen always expected — Super Bowl wins.

Ian St. Clair Avatar
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Ian St. Clair

Ian St. Clair is an award-winning sports journalist. He is a University of Northern Colorado graduate, Colorado native and has over a decade of experience covering college and professional athletics. Ian does a segment each Saturday on Klahr and Kompany on Denver radio station ESPN 1600 AM.

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