We know the Colorado Avalanche are a dominant force.
Their coronation as Central Division champions is as inevitable as Thanos snapping his fingers at an open-mic poetry night at a hipster coffee shop in the Highlands.
The Avs are pacing not only the Western Conference, but the entire league, with 72 points.
And that’s even after Tuesday night’s 4-1 home loss to the Dallas Stars. That defeat ended Colorado’s franchise-record 19-game point streak.
Yet, the league leaders have a few flaws starting to emerge.
Most notably, the Avs have had a noticeable drop-off in scoring.
And that’s having a tangible impact on Colorado NHL betting given the perception of perfection around the league.
Avs unders suddenly cashing more frequently
Take the reality of the over/under bets of late.
Entering Wednesday, five of Colorado’s most recent six games went under. But they still are five of the Avs’ 16 unders all season.
So nearly one third of the team’s unders for the season have come in the last month.
Not what we’ve expected from the Avalanche.
In fact, they’ve only scored more than four goals once in the last 10 games.
The “set it and forget it” OVER 6 or 6.5 we see on the boards is quickly becoming a plus-money opportunity on Colorado’s sports betting apps.
It’s like switching out a Howitzer for a Klobb from N64’s “Goldeneye.”
Colorado goaltenders Pavel Francouz and Darcy Kuemper have been solid. But they’re still around average in the Central Division.
Still not enough to crush the over lately.
Slow offensive starts have been to blame for the Avs.
Despite being a top-five NHL squad with goals in the first 10 minutes (67%), the Avs have only hit that mark five times in the last 13 games.
Tuesday’s game at home against Dallas was a perfect example.
The Avs dominated in shots 10-0 with a power-play opportunity but still came up with nothing by the 9:59 mark in the 4-1 setback.
Individual player props seeing adjustments
A deeper dive into player props also reveals some glaring contrarian under opportunities.
Fan-favorite center Nazem Kadri is a top-five scorer who is having the season of his life. His 62 points put him in quality company, right between Washington’s Alex Ovechkin and Galgary’s Johnny Gaudreau.
He’s been the set-up man for the Avs with 42 assists in 44 games.
But you can’t score if you’re in the penalty box.
Kadri has logged 52 minutes in the sin bin this year. That’s more than double his nearest scoring peers.
It’s been worse of late, too.
Kadri’s incredible 13-game point streak from the end of 2021 is long gone. Only three of Kadri’s last 14 games have gone over 1.5 points.
Fellow top-10 scorer Mikko Rantanen faces a different betting test: feast or famine.
Rantanen has been slightly better with five of his last 14 games topping 1.5 points. But, in that same span, he’s had just as many zero-point games.
Some sportsbooks have started to adjust, moving both Kadri and Rantanen from 1.5 O/U at plus-money to a O/U 0.5 line with a plus-price under.
For the Avalanche, being the best sharpshooter doesn’t mean you’re bulletproof.
Or, for our purposes, betproof.