Colorado bettors, welcome to the party.
Centennial State gamblers can wager into Saturday’s Tyson Fury-Deontay Wilder heavyweight boxing trilogy at 7 p.m. MT on pay-per-view in time for its conclusion.
Online sports betting did not exist here for Wilder-Fury I, a sizzling 2018 clash marked by two late Wilder knockdowns to salvage a draw. In the 2020 rematch, launched just before Colorado introduced legal sports betting, Fury dominated Wilder and stopped him in seven. That ended Wilder’s five-year reign as heavyweight champion.
Installment three, with Fury as the WBC champion and –310 favorite at DraftKings, opens the door for Colorado boxing bettors. They weigh significant decisions for one of the most attractive betting menus boxing has established.
“This will end up being one of the top boxing attractions we’ve had in a long time,” Johnny Avello, the director of race and sportsbook operations for DraftKings, told PlayColorado. “There is no telling what kind of business this fight would have done 10-15 years ago, before legalized sports betting (and the DraftKings expansion into several states). But we’re seeing now that we’re going to write a good amount of business on it.”
Money throughout the week has favored Fury. And the over-under moved from 8.5 to 7.5 rounds, a shift Avello attributes to “sharp” money, or big bettors, expecting a shorter fight than what’s posted.
Why is this an attractive betting board? Because some of the outcomes listed here have already happened within the rivalry.
Fury vs Wilder fight overview
The knockdowns. DraftKings Colorado Sportsbook offers a total knockdown bet of over 1.5 at +125. There have been two knockdowns in each fight.
Fury, overall, has dominated the action. He’s won most of the rounds. Fury lost a late lead in the first fight because he was knocked down twice and settled for a draw.
In the rematch, Fury dropped Wilder twice, ending Wilder’s five-year reign as a champion. Wilder’s trainer, Mark Breland, threw in the towel, saving Wilder more punishment. Wilder then replaced Breland as trainer with Malik Scott, whom he once knocked out.
Wilder has given the impression that he’s rudderless.
Betting overview
Since the last fight ended in seven rounds here are seven betting considerations.
The first five reflect DraftKings odds. Caesars is point No. 6 and BetMGM is point No. 7.
Does this fight go the full 12 rounds?
A Fury decision is +260. A Wilder decision is +1,600.
Most trilogies will have at least one points verdict. Wilder looked exhausted the night he lost. Does he clinch, try to shorten the fight and steal a decision against a bigger man? Does Fury, 6-foot-9, box smartly as he did last time and accept a decision victory if the knockout doesn’t come?
There’s an interesting hedge available for the fight to last the distance, regardless of who prevails. It pays +200.
If it ends early, who wins?
Fury by KO/TKO/DQ is -115. That’s how books believe the majority of bettors see the fight. Wilder is +275 to win inside of 12.
For bettors who want to build out, the fun starts.
Books have brought boxing into the modern age, introducing group betting rounds. They give a gambler a couple of rounds to work with for trying to nail a specific result. A fighter might barely survive Round 7 and be stopped in Round 8. Rather than trying to pinpoint the exact round, a bettor can pocket this bet by wagering on a knockout in Rounds 7-9.
This is a betting equivalent of a golf analogy: go for the center of the green, not the pin.
When the fight ends
- Rounds 1-3 +500
- Rounds 4-6 +285
- Rounds 7-9 +300
- Rounds 10-12 +550
Tradeoff: smaller payout than nailing the round exactly, but a healthy three-round range to work with. And the bettor doesn’t have to pick the winning fighter.
Expanding outward
One can take the same concept and apply it to each fighter.
Fury knockout payouts
- Rounds 1 -3 +750
- Rounds 4-6 +450
- Rounds 7-9 +400
- Rounds 12 +700
Wilder knockout payouts
- Rounds 1-3 +1,400
- Rounds 4-6 + 900
- Rounds 7-9 +1,200
- Rounds 10-12 +2,200
Tradeoff: Payouts are larger, the bettor must hone in and select the correct winner.
Longshot Heaven
Nail the exact winner in the exact round.
Fury
- To win in Rounds 1 or 12 is +2,800
- To triumph is Round 7, where the last fight ended, +1,200
- To win by decision +260
There are other individual props for each specific round for Fury as well.
Wilder
- To win in Round 1 is +5,000
- To triumph in Round 12 is + 8,000
- To prevail in Round 7, the round in which he lost last time, +2,800
- To capture a decision +1,600
Tradeoff: Sweet payoff, with the degree of difficulty similar to hitting a two-legged parlay of first-touchdown scorers in an NFL game.
Caesars Sportsbook: A new look at the length of the fight
Caesars Sportsbook has an interesting menu on the length of the fight. This gives gamblers the option of betting on either fighter to gain a stoppage.
The “when,” not the “who” matters here. The payoffs are on the “under” if one likes a quick fight. Payouts on the “over” are not worth it for an early fight.
With the over-under of 1.5 rounds, the under is +900
- Under 2.5 rounds is +600
- Under 3.5 rounds is +350
- Under 4.5 rounds is +275
- Under 5.5 rounds is +175
- Under 6.5 rounds is +120
Tradeoff: Not easy to hit, but bettor knows where the payouts are and where they are not.
BetMGM Sportsbook: Weighing flexibility vs ‘juice’
Some bettors go big in one area. The over-under calls that into play.
At DraftKings, the over-under of 7.5 rounds for the under.
What if the gambler wants to extend the “under’ to less than nine rounds at BetMGM Sportsbook? That can be done for -125. The wager offers additional breathing room for a reasonable shift in the betting odds. For many gamblers, this is the borderline as to where a bet gets expensive. But -125 is usually worth it.
BetMGM also produces betting bands of two rounds for which the fight will end, not three.
Tradeoff: this offers a higher payout with one less round to work with.
Final betting thought
Budget allocation. Decide how much money is for main bets and props and stick to that. This prevents players from chasing props.
